The industry started 2026 expecting a third straight year of growth. Through the first five months, shipments ran double digits behind 2025, and the forecast has already been cut once.
RVIA’s spring 2026 outlook projected wholesale shipments in a range of 328,800 to 367,000 units, a median of 349,000, building on the 342,200 units shipped in 2025. By the summer forecast update, that range had been revised down to 300,000 to 328,100 units, a median of 314,000, which would represent an 8.2% decline from 2025 rather than a third consecutive year of growth.
The monthly data explains the revision. March 2026 shipments came in 13.9% below March 2025. April fell 17.4% short of April 2025. May was down 18.7% year over year. Through May, cumulative 2026 shipments were running 14.4% behind the same period in 2025, with 138,160 units shipped against a stronger comparison period.
Why This Matters More at Wholesale Than at Retail
A manufacturer shipment slowdown shows up on a dealer’s new-unit floor before it shows up anywhere else, but the secondary effect lands squarely in wholesale. Fewer new units moving through the pipeline means fewer trade-ins generated by new purchases, which tightens the used inventory a dealer would normally source through retail floor traffic.
At the same time, dealers are already carrying a documented overhang of aged 2025 model-year inventory, so a slower new-shipment environment does not automatically translate into scarcity-driven wholesale price strength. The two forces are pulling in different directions: less new supply typically supports used values, while unresolved aged inventory from the prior model year keeps downward pressure on price. Dealers evaluating wholesale opportunities in the back half of 2026 need to read both signals together rather than assuming a shipment slowdown alone will tighten the wholesale market.
What Changed Between the Spring and Summer Forecasts
RVIA’s own commentary points to softer-than-expected retail conditions and a more cautious dealer ordering posture as the primary drivers of the downward revision. Dealers are reported to be stocking fewer models and leaning toward proven sellers rather than ordering broadly across a manufacturer’s full lineup, which reduces order volume even where underlying retail demand is stable.
This selective ordering behavior has a direct wholesale consequence covered in more detail elsewhere on this site: floorplans that get cut from a manufacturer’s near-term production plan become scarcer in the used market almost immediately, which can support wholesale pricing on well-kept examples of a discontinued or reduced-production configuration even while the broader shipment number is falling.
Reading the Signal Correctly for the Second Half of the Year
RVIA’s own quarterly forecast commentary has flagged improving economic fundamentals and the possibility that easing interest rates provide a lift in the second half of 2026. If that materializes, the shipment shortfall through May becomes a temporary dip in a still-growing multi-year trend rather than the start of a longer downturn, and wholesale buyers positioned with inventory ahead of a retail recovery are better placed than buyers who waited for confirmation.
If the softer conditions persist through year-end, the more conservative summer forecast becomes the operating baseline, and dealers should plan wholesale acquisition and disposition volume against 314,000 units for the year rather than the original 349,000 median. The dealers who get hurt in a forecast revision like this one are typically the ones who kept planning against the number that was true in the spring after the data had already moved.
Key Takeaways
- RVIA’s wholesale shipment forecast for 2026 was revised down from a median of 349,000 units in spring to 314,000 units in summer, a swing from expected growth to an expected 8.2% decline.
- Shipments ran 14.4% behind 2025 through May, with each of the three most recent reported months down double digits year over year.
- A shipment slowdown tightens future trade-in supply but does not offset the separate, already-documented overhang of aged 2025 model-year inventory sitting on dealer lots.
- Selective, “greatest hits” ordering by dealers is accelerating scarcity on floorplans that get cut from near-term production, a distinct wholesale dynamic from the shipment number itself.
- Wholesale planning for the rest of 2026 should be built against the revised 314,000 unit median, with a clear trigger to revisit if RVIA’s anticipated second-half improvement materializes.
Real-time listing activity across a national dealer network is a faster read on where wholesale demand is actually heading than a quarterly forecast revision. See current wholesale activity on DealerBackstock.
